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At first, Trump seemed to adopt a firm position regarding Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious repercussions" during the summer in case Putin persisted blocking truce discussions, the former president finally imposed major penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or European participation, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump seems to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if handing Russia a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred swath of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible government that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in status the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding Russia with land that its military have been unable to capture in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be opposed and banned." Apparently to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken comparable agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – how should we trust Putin now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars include unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not