Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
