Behind this Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Trip: An Indo-Russian Bond Which Has Diminished.
The rhetoric and optics from Russian President Vladimir Putin's most recent visit to India projected a strong bilateral relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the leaders shared a ride together, echoing a known political gesture. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the India-Russia bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India over his 25-year rule and his twentieth encounter with Modi after the latter took office in 2014.
A Chasm Separating Pageantry and Substance
Nevertheless, a noticeable divide exists between the ceremony and the substance of this alliance. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually purchasing less Russian oil because of international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed a series of agreements in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, expected revelations on major defence deals failed to happen. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in deliveries of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Relationship Losing Geopolitical Heft
This all indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer holds the identical strategic weight it once possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained special barter arrangements and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to maintain a semblance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has substantially deepened relations with the Western world.
Broadening and Underlying Tensions
New Delhi is unlikely to cut its important relationship with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion increases on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the relationship into new areas. On Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and sustainable". This involves improving entry for Indian products to address a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans several strategically important sectors – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.
Ideological Affinity and Perceived Reliability
At an sentimental plane, a high degree of closeness with Russia remains, particularly among senior cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During recent frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.
This key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The extensive joint statement released during Putin's India trip made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the war have been limited.
Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act
This situation does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The country is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen cultural exchanges between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a key thorn in its ties with the West. But, should a settlement is achieved, if it falls short of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the India-Russia relationship will undoubtedly persist in Western governments.
