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Whenever the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects problems.

That is when enormous inflatables are sent across the border, with boxes of contraband goods hanging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this illicit balloon traffic has caused Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are convinced they are facing something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an act of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has announced an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, each evening, military police head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Units establish temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also serve as a deterrent.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."